Thursday, January 03, 2008

a quick riff on tonight's Caucus

I have been steering clear of politics lately, but my friend Rudy asked for my take on Iowa, who holds its caucus today. I can only speak from the experience of a couple of friends that live in the western part of the state as an indication of what I think will happen (but, sheesh- I have no idea- I have never been particularly good at prognostication when things are so wide open). I can only go with polls, anecdotes and my gut.

On the Democratic side, my friends were split from the beginning. One was a Hillary supporter (which, of course, I cannot understand for the life of me). However, after one-too-many times of Clinton showing her real self (mean-spirit, anger, control freak, indignation, sense of entitlement), she has moved over the the Obama camp. My other friend has been in the Biden camp since the beginning. But, his second choice (which matters in Iowa) is probably Obama.

So, I think Obama will win Iowa. At least I hope so. If not, we are headed towards a Hillary coronation unless the rest of the country comes to its senses or she screws up royally (I could care less which one happens- as long as 1 does).

On the Republican side, I think Romney is done. I had predicated him as the eventual president over a year ago (not because I wanted him, even though I voted for him as governor of Massachusetts in 2002). I felt he had the organization, money, pandering ability, etc. to make a serious run. However, people are seeing him as the paper candidate he is and I think he is done unless he smartens up (plus, the RR has finally come to its senses on Huckabee).

I think Huckabee will win tonight by a decent margin. He will carry the momentum to a nomination unless he is derailed by the powers that be in his party (or McCain rises from the dead, which is a possibility).

My friend Rudy (not the Darth Vader like former mayor of NYC) asked which Republican I could vote for if someone held a gun to my head. It is simple- anyone but Rudy (Vader). A Rudy (Vader) versus Hillary contest is the only way I vote for Clinton- as of now.

I would be pleased if we make it to the conventions and have Obama nominated on the Dem side and Huckabee (or McCain) on the Republican side (sure, I would like Biden vs. Paul, too- but pigs do not fly). Why? Because the power brokers in each party have put all of their eggs in other baskets and done nothing to help these candidates. To find that the people still have a voice in the process would please me.

4 comments:

rudy said...

thanks for not calling me vader

you've gone on the record, so will i...

DEMS: obama, edwards, clinton
REPS: huckabee, romney, mccain

rudy said...

boss where is your email addy i can't find it on tu blog home page ese

james said...

Nice picks man. Batting 1000 thus far.

kristi.bennett said...

yeah honey way to go calling it last night! maybe we should get that obama sticker for the wagon now. :)