Tuesday, November 04, 2008

prediction

my prediction...

349 O
189 M

a tad optimistic, but i wanted to go on a limb

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

That's not out on a limb. It's exactly what Nate Silver is predicting. Cheater!

Rick said...
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Rick said...
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Rick said...

I just read Silver, whom I love. Our maps are different.

Anonymous said...

Likely story! I don't necessarily agree with his politics, but he's a brilliant man. I really think he's going to revolutionize polling, similar to the way he revolutionized predicting performance outcomes in baseball with PECOTA. He predicted my Rays would win 87 games this season, far and away closer than any other person in the media.

Rick said...

you are right. I actually am close friends with Silver and had access to his umbers in advance of them being made public via his blog. he did this so my readership could think that I had guessed it on my own. He was trying to help an unwashed scrub like myself get some good numbers out there.

Of course, the fact that he is predicting 349 while giving Obama North Carolina and not giving Obama Indiana is weird. North Carolina would give Obama 353. But, he is not giving all of those votes to Obama, which is impossible.

Of course, i think I could be wrong. Obama may get NC and 353, while losing Indiana (which I have him winning and having 349). If I had been truly brave, I would have given Obama 364- which I contemplated.

My map looks like Karl Rove's, but includes Indiana. But, like I said, I would think I will end up 4 off. But, since I am below I can still win the Showcase Showdown.

I do agree on Silver. He is a brilliant statistician and sees things others don't. That Rays prediction colored my perception all year, staying with him and not the rest of the pundits.

While I made my prediction today on my own, it is because I have been following Silver (along with a couple of others).

Anonymous said...

I was just giving you a hard time about the prediction. I don't really believe you copied Silver. Sarcasm doesn't come across well in print. The reason Silver is 349 and not 353 is this:

"These states total 353 electoral votes. Our official projection, which looks at these outcomes probabilistically -- for instance, assigns North Carolina's 15 electoral votes to Obama 59 percent of the time -- comes up with an incrementally more conservative projection of 348.6 electoral votes."

Statistics and computer formulas basically. His election PECOTA only understands likely outcomes based on percentages.

james said...

just hope the vote isn't stolen.

Mike Murrow said...

i don't think it will be stolen. i'm wanting a landslide, but i don't think it will happen.

i think it will be a lot closer than your prediction.

Anonymous said...

You were too conservative it seems.

Rick said...

my mistake. I totally should have gone with NC and IN, but I chose one because I thought I that would be too over the top.

Oh well.

kristi said...

hint: go back & take off your 2 email addresses or you might start getting hit with lots of spam you don't want... :)